In a groundbreaking study, researchers analyzed over 500 future emissions scenarios reviewed by the IPCC in its latest assessment reports. This comprehensive study sheds light on the challenges and potential paths for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and combating climate change. This article will dive into the role of the IPCC, how it assesses future climate scenarios, and the findings of the latest research.
What are IPCC assessment reports?
- IPCC reports comprise three Working Group reports: one on physical science, one on climate adaptation, and one on mitigation action.
- One synthesis report consolidates findings from the three Working Group reports.
- Then there are thematic special reports. Each report assesses climate-related scientific literature to capture the state of scientific, technical, and socio-economic knowledge on climate change.
- The IPCC is currently in its Seventh Assessment cycle (AR7).
How Does the IPCC Assess Future Scenarios?
- The IPCC uses ‘modelled pathways’ to estimate what it will take to limit the warming of the earth’s surface.
- These pathways are drawn using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that describe human and earth systems.
- IAMs are complex models that examine possible futures of the energy and climate system and economies.
- Its macroeconomic models can point to future growth levels in terms of GDP; its energy models can project future consumption; vegetation models can examine land-use changes; and earth-system models use the laws of physics to understand how climate evolves.
- With such integration across disciplines, IAMs are meant to provide policy-relevant guidelines on climate action. However, these models also have shortcomings.
- They prioritise least-cost assessments — for example, the absolute cost of setting up a solar plant or undertaking afforestation in India is lower than in the U.S.
- However, experts have said they could exercise the option of enabling countries to equitably share the burden of action, where the richest undertake more drastic mitigation action more immediately.
Key Findings from the New Study
- The study was conducted by Tejal Kanitkar and Akhil Mythri from the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru, and T. Jayaraman from M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation, Chennai.
- They predict that by 2050, regions encompassing 60% of the world’s population, including Sub-Saharan Africa and South, West, and East Asia (except China), will still have below the global average per-capita GDP.
- Similar disparities in consumption of goods, energy, and fossil fuels exist between the Global North and South.
- Developing nations will shoulder a heavier burden in terms of carbon sequestration and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies.
- This unfairly places the responsibility for mitigation and carbon dioxide removal on poorer countries.
- Human activities have caused global warming, with a significant rise in mean surface temperature and CO2 levels. Fossil fuel use remains the primary driver, contributing significantly to GHG emissions.
- The report underscores the staggering disparity in vulnerability, with individuals in highly vulnerable regions facing a significantly higher risk of mortality from climate-related disasters.
- There is a urgent, deep, and sustained cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are necessary to limit warming to 1.5ºC.
Recommendations from the Study
- Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies may complement emission reductions but must be deployed judiciously due to sustainability concerns.
- The report emphasizes the need for a substantial reduction in fossil fuel use and the elimination of fossil fuel subsidies.
- The commitment to halt deforestation by 2030 and implementing biodiversity frameworks are urgent imperatives as safeguarding forest offers significant mitigation potential.
- Energy conservation and shifting dietary patterns can yield substantial emission reductions, particularly in high emission sectors like transportation and agriculture.
- Increased finance, technology transfer, and international cooperation are crucial for accelerating climate action
- The study highlights that the scenarios disregard the historical responsibility of the Global North in contributing to climate change
Why Does Equity Matter in Climate Action?
- The principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities are enshrined in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
- Article 3 of the Convention states countries “should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind, on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities.
- Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof.
- These principles recognise that while tackling climate change requires global action, richer countries are better placed to shoulder bigger climate action responsibilities than poorer ones.
The IPCC’s Role in Global Climate Action
- The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an intergovernmental body of the United Nations that assesses human-induced climate change.
- The panel on climate change was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
- IPCC is headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, and is composed of 195-member states.
- The panel on climate change produces several reports such as assessment reports, special reports, and methodology reports to assess the state of knowledge of climate change.
- IPCC, however, is not involved in scientific research and outsources it to scientists across the world who go through the relevant scientific data and pull up conclusions on its basis.
- It may be remembered that in 2007, the IPCC, then headed by Rajendra Pachauri, shared the Nobel Peace Prize with the former US Vice President Al Gore.
Powers
- It is not within IPCC’s remit to prescribe policies or tell governments what they should do.
- IPCC’s job ends with researching and generating information.
- It is now up to policy makers in various governments to act on the reports.
- One good guess is that there will be intense negotiations as to who should do what and who will pay whom so that there is concerted climate action.
Conclusion
The IPCC continues to be an essential entity in the fight against climate change. Its reports and research, including the latest study on future emissions scenarios, are shaping global discussions on how to limit global warming. As the world faces increasingly urgent climate challenges, understanding the IPCC’s findings and recommendations will be critical to guiding effective and equitable climate action.
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